General election ITV debate: Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer prepare for head-to-head clash – UK politics live | Politics
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Sunak under pressure to use first TV debate with Starmer to break campaign deadlock and deflate Labour’s poll lead
Tomorrow it will be two weeks from the moment when Rishi Sunak called the general election. As the Guardian’s opinion poll tracker shows, at the time Labour was more than 20 points ahead of the Conservatives and now – after endless travelling and campaigning, thousands of leaflet deliveries and conversations, countless hours of TV news coverage and a torrent of print journalism in ink and pixel – the state of play between the two main parties is more or less exactly the same as it was.
Tonight, at 9pm, ITV will host the first TV debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer. In 2010 the first ever TV election debate in the UK had an audience of around 10 million and that suggests that, if any single moment in the campaign is going to present Sunak with an opportunity to jumpstart the Tory poll ratings, it is now. There won’t be 10 million people reading his manifesto.
There are, though, three problems he faces. First, voters already have firm views about both leaders, and on balance they prefer Starmer. Second, it is not obvious that Sunak is a better debater; in terms of rhetoric at PMQs, the two are relatively well matched, but Sunak is massively handicapped by having to defend the Tories’ 14-year record. And, third, most election debates in the past have had little or no lasting impact on voting intention in the campaign.
Still, you never know. At the very least it might make good TV. And it is possible that we will learn something new. Starmer is fighting a safety-first election campaign, focusing on a series of policy proposals that have already been well publicised. But Sunak seems to be pushing buttons desperately, in the hope of finding something that might work, and we have yet to see out how radical he will be in terms of promising further tax cuts, or floating withdrawal from the European convention on human rights. Tonight we might get some clarification.
Archie Bland has more in our debate preview podcast.
Key events
Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, is winning the contest for the best photo opportunities of the election. The Lib Dems want to dismantle “the blue wall” (Tory seats, mainly in the south of England, where the Lib Dems are the main challengers), and today he and the party’s candidate in Cheadle, Tom Morrison, demolished a wall of sorts (but more of a tower, really) playing Jenga with giant blue bricks.
Green party agrees to review policy proposing reducing number of medical interventions in childbirth
The Green party has confirmed it will conduct a full review of its health policy, after concerns were raised over its pledge to reduce the number of medical interventions in childbirth, PA Media report. PA says:
The party’s health policy document said there has been a rise in caesarean sections, which it described as “expensive and, when not medically required, risky”.
A change to NHS culture is also proposed in the document, to ensure that “birth is treated as a normal and non-medical event”.
Green party health spokesperson Dr Pallavi Devulapalli said on X there is “no intention to stop or reduce medical care provision during pregnancy and childbirth”.
The health policy document on the party’s website – which was last updated in April 2024 – has since been taken down.
The website previously said: “The incidence of medical intervention in childbirth has escalated in recent years, particularly the rate of caesarean sections, which are expensive and, when not medically required, risky. We will work to reduce the number of interventions in childbirth, and change the culture of the NHS so that birth is treated as a normal and non-medical event, in which mothers are empowered and able to be in control.”
The milkshake attack on Nigel Farage today was not a laughing matter, Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, told LBC’s Tonight with Andrew Marr. Streeting explained:
Firstly, I don’t find what happened to Nigel Farage today to be a laughing matter and neither does the Labour party. I think if people want to take Nigel Farage on, we do it by debate and we do it by the ballot box. He’s put himself up for the election, people should take him on through democratic debate, not through those sorts of silly stunts.
People might say, ‘Oh, it’s just a milkshake.’ I’ve been a member of parliament for nine years, in that time, two of my colleagues, one Labour, one Conservative have been murdered. You don’t know when someone’s launching towards you what it is going to be.
The polling company Savanta has issued a press release highlighting what it describes as “a rare bit of positive news for Rishi Sunak”. It says its latest poll shows the Labour lead down to 14 points – its lowest level since February.
🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph
📈14pt Labour lead – lowest since Feb
🌹Lab 42 (-2)
🌳Con 28 (+1)
🔶LD 9 (-1)
➡️Reform 9 (+1)
🌍Green 4 (=)
🎗️SNP 3 (=)
⬜️Other 5 (+1)2,209 UK adults, 31 May – 2 June
(chg 24-26 May) pic.twitter.com/eOnOsqQQY3
— Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) June 4, 2024
But Savanta points out that the changes from the previous week (Labour down 2, the Tories up 1) are within the margin of error. And a lead of 14 points would still be enough to give Labour a majority of 176, according to seat-modelling site Electoral Calculus, Savanta adds.
Julie Etchingham is chairing tonight’s ITV debate. Here is a picture from ITV showing the set.
And Jon Craig from Sky News has a picture of the spin room at the Salford studios.
1st live in the “spin room” for the ITV “Sunak v Starmer” leaders’ debate. We’re in the “Coronation Street Experience” & for lovers of the soap opera of politics there should be plenty of drama. pic.twitter.com/gxQxItXuA0
— Jon Craig (@joncraig) June 4, 2024
‘Arbitrary’ election pledges to cut UK migration will worsen worker shortages
The battle between the Conservatives and Labour to show they are tough on migration risks damaging sectors that are vital to the economy, industry figures have warned. Rob Davies and Jack Simpson have the story.
Lee Cain, who was Boris Johnson’s director of communications at No 10, has written an interesting thread on TV debates on X.
Getting the candidate ready is only half the battle – campaign teams also have to undergo gruelling negotiations with the broadcasters and opposing parties. In every election debate I have organised, it is negotiations and the fallout that cause the controversy (Andrew Neil in…
— Lee Cain (@MrLeeCain) June 4, 2024
This is probably his main point.
The most important thing to remember is the debate is *not* a debate. It is an opportunity to drive a message and frame the choice to millions of voters. In 2019, that frame was ‘back Boris to get Brexit done’ (change) or ‘dither and delay with Jeremy Corbyn’ (more of the same)
Philip Cowley and Matthew Bailey have written a good history of TV debates for the House magazine. Here is an excerpt.
Since the Brown-Cameron-Clegg debates of 2010, only one major party leader has not taken part in at least one direct debate – Theresa May in 2017 – although arguments about the format have continued, ensuring relatively few one-on-one encounters. The debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer on Tuesday night will be just the third head-to-head debate between the two main party leaders since Wilson first floated the idea over 60 years ago (the first and second being between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn in 2019).
Advocating for TV debates back in 1974, Alastair Burnet, then editor of the Economist, said that “men talking intelligently to each other gives a much healthier impression of the political process than men shouting at each other around the country”. We suspect that may be a naïve view of tonight’s proceedings.
Sunak under pressure to use first TV debate with Starmer to break campaign deadlock and deflate Labour’s poll lead
Tomorrow it will be two weeks from the moment when Rishi Sunak called the general election. As the Guardian’s opinion poll tracker shows, at the time Labour was more than 20 points ahead of the Conservatives and now – after endless travelling and campaigning, thousands of leaflet deliveries and conversations, countless hours of TV news coverage and a torrent of print journalism in ink and pixel – the state of play between the two main parties is more or less exactly the same as it was.
Tonight, at 9pm, ITV will host the first TV debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer. In 2010 the first ever TV election debate in the UK had an audience of around 10 million and that suggests that, if any single moment in the campaign is going to present Sunak with an opportunity to jumpstart the Tory poll ratings, it is now. There won’t be 10 million people reading his manifesto.
There are, though, three problems he faces. First, voters already have firm views about both leaders, and on balance they prefer Starmer. Second, it is not obvious that Sunak is a better debater; in terms of rhetoric at PMQs, the two are relatively well matched, but Sunak is massively handicapped by having to defend the Tories’ 14-year record. And, third, most election debates in the past have had little or no lasting impact on voting intention in the campaign.
Still, you never know. At the very least it might make good TV. And it is possible that we will learn something new. Starmer is fighting a safety-first election campaign, focusing on a series of policy proposals that have already been well publicised. But Sunak seems to be pushing buttons desperately, in the hope of finding something that might work, and we have yet to see out how radical he will be in terms of promising further tax cuts, or floating withdrawal from the European convention on human rights. Tonight we might get some clarification.
Archie Bland has more in our debate preview podcast.
Former Welsh FM Mark Drakeford condemns his successor’s decision to shelve shorter school summer holidays plan
Steven Morris
The former Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford has strongly criticised a decision by the Welsh government to shelve plans to shorten summer holidays. (See 9.33am.)
Speaking in the Senedd, Drakeford said the change of heart over holiday reform by the Labour administration was an abandonment of a manifesto commitment and would harm children from poorer areas.
It was Drakeford’s most notable intervention since stepping down as first minister and comes at a tense time for Labour. Tomorrow Drakeford’s successor, Vaughan Gething, will face a no confidence vote over donations he accepted for his leadership campaign.
Drakeford was clearly angry at the change of heart on school holidays. He said:
I regret the political damage, I regret the reputational damage. What I really regret is the damage that will be done to the life chances of the children who are at the heart of this.
Under Drakeford, the Welsh government had argued that some pupils, especially those from financially disadvantaged backgrounds and those with additional learning needs, find it difficult to get back to learning after long summer holidays.
Drakeford said: “This policy would have begun to close the gap in the lives of those children.”
Education secretary Lynne Neagles said she regretted the tone of Drakeford’s remarks. She said the decision had been made taking into account views made during an extensive consultation. She said:
But it’s also about recognising that we have to implement a series of major reforms and tackle some serious attainment issues in our schools. And to think that a week’s change in the school year is going to make a difference to the systemic challenges we’re facing in education is quite frankly fiddling while Rome burns.
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