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Millions of award winning and minimum wage Australians are ready to find out how much more money will land in their bank accounts each pay cycle.
The decision on the annual wage by the workplace judge will be broadcast on Monday and comes at a time when pressures on the cost of living continue and keep pressure on the lowest paid workers.
Each year the Fair Work Commission decides whether and by how much to raise the minimum wage for employees, taking into account economic conditions as well as wider goals such as closing the gender pay gap.
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A significant increase was handed out last year – 5.75 per cent for awards and 8.6 per cent for the national minimum – with the commission basing its call on a combination of low unemployment, falling wages and high inflation.
Employers, unions and governments have already outlined their positions ahead of the 2024 decision.
The Albanese government’s submission said it would prefer “the real wages of Australia’s low-wage workers not to go backwards”.
No number was specified, but inflation rose 4.1 percent year-on-year in the March quarter, well below its peak but still outside the central bank’s preferred two to three percent range.
The tax breaks, which will start in the middle of the year, should also not be seen as a substitute for wage increases, the government said in its statement.
Still, employer groups said tax cuts, rebates on energy bills and other cost-of-living relief in the state and federal budgets should be factored into the wage decision as extra relief for the lowest paid.
The Australian Industry Group proposed a 2.8% pay rise, warning that the economy is slowing and the labor market is weakening, and excessive pay rises could increase the risk of job losses.
The top trade union body is pushing for a more substantial five per cent pay rise as cost-of-living pressures hit low-income earners hard.
The Australian Council of Trade Unions does not believe such an increase will lead to inflation, based on the solid progress seen in consumer price growth since last year’s big increase.
Still, after stronger-than-expected monthly inflation for April, economists will be closely watching the decision on the floor and allocation in the context of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next interest rate change.
AMP Australia economists Diana Muzina and Mai Bui said the economy was too weak to justify more increases, even with April’s price surprise.
They expect the next move to be downwards and the timing largely depends on the upcoming decision on minimum and wage rates and inflation data.
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